Monday, August 4, 2014
Time for Change
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Predicting the Pirates - A Fan with Statistics
...Then this decade happened. The Pirates have improved each of the last three seasons since 2010, which wasn't that hard considering how bad they had been. In some ways though, it's been worse to be a fan these last couple of years. Each of the last two seasons, we've been wooed by the promise that the Pirates might actually finish the season with a winning record, or better yet, maybe even make the playoffs. Both times, the Bucs came back to earth and broke our hearts all over again. Last year was the worst, when the Pirates entered were 18 games above .500 in August and still found a way to finish with a losing record.
This year, it seems like we might actually have a winning season. We've been consistently above .500 since April 19th, and have what "looks" like an outstanding pitching staff. I say that it "looks" like it is outstanding because it looked great last year too, before falling apart late in the season.
I wanted to get a good sense of where the Pirates should be at the end of the season based on the way they've been performing. Being a stats "guy", I went over to http://www.baseball-reference.com/, which is a sports statistician's goldmine. I pulled the team pitching and batting statistics for the last four seasons (2009-2012) to figure out the best predictors for end-of-season win totals. I looked at, literally, dozens of different stats and ran all sorts of models (nothing too fancy, but too boring to detail here). I found out that the two team stats that really seem to matter are ballpark adjusted ERA (ERA+) and ballpark adjusted OPS (OPS+). Together, these two team statistics account for 85% of the variability in teams' win totals at the end of the season. That's pretty impressive for two statistics.
ERA+ and OPS+ are essentially measures that attempt to normalize pitcher and batter performances in terms of both league averages and ballpark conditions. If a pitcher has an ERA+ of over 100 it means, accounting for the ballparks he pitched in, he allowed fewer runs than the average pitcher in the league. OPS+ does the same thing for batters, but with the more complicated OPS statistic (which accounts for both slugging percentage and on base percentage). If a batter has an OPS+ above 100, then that batter reached base, hit for extra bases, or did both more often than the average batter in the league.
Using the ERA+/OPS+ model to predict the number of wins a team should have at the end of the season, I compared the predicted number of wins to the actual number of wins that the Pirates had from 2009-2012. The model has a standard error estimate of 4.56, meaning that it should predict, within 4 1/2 games, the number of wins the Pirates had during those seasons. It did. Here are the results of my analysis -
The quality of the table isn't great, but it's easy to see that the predicted wins are very close to the actual wins. 2012 is the only year where the "Real Wins" were at the upper limit of the margin of error, and it actually looks like the Pirates should have finished worse that year.
2013 looks pretty murky for the Pirates to me. Based on the model, the Pirates should finish with around 86 wins, which is above .500 (yay!) but isn't likely to get them into the playoffs (boo!). It looks like the pitching staff is, indeed, performing better than the average staff in the league, but not by a whole lot (Texas and Atlanta have team ERA+'s of 123 and 122, respectively). The batting is below average, but no where near the league cellar (The White Sox and Marlins have teams OPS+'s of 77 and 70, respectively).
To sum it up, the Pirates are the definition of an average team this year. They are a little above average in pitching, a little below average in batting, and should finish somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 this year if they stay that way (a big if). The lowest estimated win total for the year is just below 82, which is the magic number for a non-losing season, so I would expect things to get pretty tight around August-September. Until they get their OPS+ at or above 100, I don't expect the Pirates to contend for the division or the Wild Card. As a fan, I'd love for my Bucs to wind up in the playoffs, but right now, I'll settle for a realistic expectation that they will be just a little better than they were last year.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
What I want to hear in a debate...
I came away Tuesday night feeling incredibly frustrated with both Romney and Obama. It started with the first question, which was particularly relevant to me as a twenty something aspiring PhD in Sociology. Here's a link to the debate video. The education question and both candidates' responses run from the one minute mark to the nine minute mark.
http://www.youtube.com/politics?feature=etp-pv-ype-3bff3fd3f0
Eight minutes, and neither candidate could give a real solution to the job crisis recent college graduates are currently facing. Sure, I've heard talk of increasing manufacturing jobs, which helps people with those kinds of degrees or training. But much of my generation, who were born in the mid eighties and nineties, had a very different idea of the work we would be doing when we grew up. Traditional manufacturing jobs aren't going to do a lot for us. And neither is promising a return to the economic status-quo of the late nineties and early 2000's. A lot of us, myself included, went into knowledge producing fields because that's what we were prepared for throughout our entire lives. For my part, my education set me on a very specific path to study social behavior, use statistics, and perform generally intellectual work. Now, when folks like me ask where the jobs are, it seems that the only answers are that we are over-educated, lacking marketable skills, and should have been more practical.
That answer isn't good enough. You don't get to raise an entire generation to march into a new century of promise, wonder, and progress, then blame them for their unemployment when the last generations' greed and irresponsibility put us in this predicament.
The larger issue for me is that my generation is going to be paying for the sins of our parents' generation. We are going to have to pay off the national deficit. We are going to have to find a way to support an increasing proportion of senior citizens. We are going to have to clean up the mess. And it is frustrating.
My generation has the education and know-how to get work done faster than our parents did, yet we are still paid, for the most part, according to our time rather than our results. We are concerned with sustainability because we have to be, because environmental issues are already affecting us. And we are willing to sacrifice for the greater good, as evidenced by the number of young soldiers who have given their lives in wars started before a lot of us could even vote.
I want to hear about fundamental changes we can make as a country to give millennial generation a shot at the society we dreamed of. Where we work to live, not live to work. Where we can finish our education and actually use our degrees. Where we don't have to spend our entire lives paying down the last generations' debts. Where we are willing to put people over principles. And where young people are actually rewarded for being more productive than their parents were.
That last point is really important to me. Work has changed in the last twenty years dramatically, but we still use an arcane system to reimburse people for what they do. I can find, retrieve, and summarize exponentially more academic literature than graduate students even ten years ago. It's not because I'm "better", it's because technology allows me to do more in less time. Logically, that means I should either a) be able to spend less time working and receive the same compensation (adjusted for inflation) or b) be paid more for being able to get more done. Neither, however, is actually the case. Instead, academic positions have become increasingly competitive and less secure. And that's just me. Our society has changed tremendously and is continuing to change at an even quicker rate, but we are playing by social and economic rules that are outdated and, frankly, counterproductive.
Give me a candidate who understands and is willing to deal with that, and I will gladly deliver my vote.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
How Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu made my life better.
As I told one of my BJJ instructors yesterday, I had not been a physically active person in a very long time when I started training. At the age of 27 I was not as healthy as I felt like I should be, and I was tired of feeling like crap about it. A year and a half later, that has definitely changed. But, more importantly, BJJ has helped me deal with some issues that have bothered me since I was a kid.
I was bullied a lot as a kid, and it killed my self-esteem. I remember very clearly being in fifth grade and getting beat up by a bully on the playground. A kid threw me on the ground and hit me, then held me down while a girl kicked me. It was humiliating and made me feel inferior. I've carried that with me for a long time. In middle school, a group of kids threw me down a hill, then held me down and beat me up again during recess. These were "good kids" in the eyes of others, and I remember feeling so awful about myself because no one stood up for me. I wasn't very popular, and I internalized that as I grew up.
I remember telling my teachers about bullying incidents, but this only made it worse for me. From then on I felt like I couldn't handle my own problems, and other kids ostracized me because the only way I could deal with conflict was to tattle-tell. It's no wonder I've had self-esteem problems my whole life.
BJJ changed my life not only by making me more physically fit, but by changing how I see myself in relation to others. When you are routinely grappling with people who are bigger and stronger than you, and surviving, it changes your mindset. I am no where near being a competitive BJJ player, but I feel like I can survive and keep myself from being harmed against an untrained opponent. That level of confidence alone changes the level of confidence I bring to interacting with other people in a variety of situations.
In the film Red Belt, the main character provides an excellent insight on conflict.
"Everything has a force. You embrace it or deflect it. Why oppose it?"
Rener Gracie says something very similar in the Bully Proof promotions when he says that BJJ teaches people to fight fire with water, instead of more fire. This is a core concept in BJJ, that if we try to meet strength with strength, we are leaving too much to chance. Instead, we use technique, leverage, and our knowledge to escape and reverse a situation. This is a huge life lesson that, to me, can only be taught through experience. In the relative safety of the school, or barra, we experience what it is to be threatened, to lose, and to stop using direct force to deal with the threat. It is a lab for life.
I've noticed a huge difference in how I deal with things, and how I respond to things, since taking up BJJ. I realize, most of the time, that responding to insults and offenses by getting angry and offended is absolutely pointless. Understanding the situation and changing the terms so that everyone can learn something, or at the very least, removing myself from harms way, has been a much less stressful way to go about my business. I'm still getting better at this (I'm a white belt in more ways than one), but the difference has already been huge.
Spiritually, BJJ has given me an awareness that is very difficult to explain. When you are grappling, or rolling, with someone, you have to be present without over-asserting your will over the situation. There is an ebb and flow of action and reaction, and I feel at my best when I am mindfully waiting for my opportunity to act, and acting quickly when it arises. This helps in my faith walk tremendously. In Christianity, and any other spiritual discipline, it is easy to get caught up in the determinism vs free will argument. The practice of BJJ, however, has revealed a complimentary relationship between choice and non-choice for me. Just like in the gym, there are opportunities to act in our lives, but there may only be a one or two "good" choices at a given time. The more we practice, the more natural those choices become, until they are such a part of ourselves that we simply "do" instead of "decide".
All of this is simply to say that BJJ, as a discipline, is an enormous benefit to my life. I'd like to encourage anyone who is struggling with their physical fitness, their state-of-mind, or anything else to take a look at it. If you are a parent of a child who is suffering from bullying or just poor self-esteem to look for a BJJ school that will work with them. Rener's system, Bully Proof, is well organized and has generally been well received, so I might start there (I have no skin in the game on this one, I'm just a believer). However, there are tons of BJJ schools out there with lots of approaches, so take a look and see what you like. Speaking from my experience, though, if a kid is being bullied, you need to equip them to deal with it because they will carry it with them well into adulthood.
BJJ will push you and challenge you in ways you will not be able to predict. It requires discipline, humility, openness, humor, and respect. But the returns are exponential.
~Phil
Friday, September 14, 2012
Living in Two Worlds - Intellectual and/or Christian
For me, the identifiers "Intellectual" and "Christian" have at varying times worked well together and caused enormous internal strife. There have been times that I would consider myself an "Intellectual Christian", that is, someone who is following the Way but claims not to be "one of those idiots". There have been other times that I would consider myself a "Christian Intellectual", that is, a thinker who somehow still manages to have faith. The problem always seems to be deciding which one is my "dominant" identifier.
I've found recently that I do better when I am unaware of my identifiers. This is difficult to explain. There are times that I am simply ignorant to the labels that get thrown around about certain types of people, and in this ignorance I feel less pressure to fit into a certain box. I think it is that way for most people.
One of the joys of functioning in both the church and academia is that I see a lot of symmetry. It seems to me that people are people no matter where you go, even if a lot of important details change from one place to the next. This used to bum me out, but now I feel enriched by the experiences I get to have in a variety of environments. I don't know how this happened, but I'm glad it has.
One of the things I have noticed is that, social structures aside, situations work best when the right people are involved. This is challenging and encouraging. How we define "right people" may depend heavily on the situation at hand.
I'm thinking a lot about the research topic I discussed in my last post. I got some feedback from two colleagues yesterday, and one of them pointed out that my focus was on the negative aspects of being a minister in the Methodist church. I had not really thought about it, but I realized this was a very important insight. In studying how the lives of pastors are impacted by the expectations and roles they live out, I've been presumptuous in thinking that the only impacts I will see are stress and distress. But what about people who are deeply fulfilled by challenging other peoples' views, or who have unique gifts that allow them to handle conflict with incredible grace (just to speculate)?
I'm interested in the interaction between person and situation, and this seems particularly relevant in the relationship between pastors, their churches, and their well-being. I think my focus on distressing outcomes for pastors assumed that the individual (minister) was a subject of the roles and expectations embedded in their situation, and not a participant. In addition to looking at negative outcomes, such as a pastor burning out or selling out, I should also be interested in how people succeed in both conviction and well being. What constellations of pastor characteristics and congregation characteristics work? How do negative experiences help leaders mature instead of giving up on or giving in to difficult situations?
In other words, how do ministers stay happy and just in the face of difficult circumstance? I don't think it is a simple matter of "moral fiber", but I wonder if there are some common factors both in terms of life experiences and social support. Does a pastor both have to have the "right stuff" and the "right people" to make it through the world with their soul intact? Do we all?
Monday, September 3, 2012
Don't Call it a Comeback...
I'm revisiting this blog because I've recently been experiencing a "reawakening" of my deeper spiritual self. There has been a lot of good and a lot of bad in the last year, but I haven't been as committed to pursuing a deeper, more fully realized faith as I could have been. That's not necessarily a bad thing, it simply is was it is. Sometimes we go through seasons where we make little forward progress because there are simply other things we need to work on, and I do feel like a much more mature person now than I did a year ago.
That said, I've got some work to do on the spiritual end of things, particularly in the realm of "calling". n the past I've been hesitant about the idea of "calling" because I don't necessarily believe there is any single thing that we are supposed to do. However, I believe the idea of calling is much wider and deeper than an occupation. Calling affects how we pursue our occupation, the purpose we put ourselves towards in every facet of our daily lives, and the means we are willing to use to achieve an end.
I'm shamed to say that, as a graduate student, I have found it too easy to succumb to a very functional way of doing my daily business. The academic world is full of the "publish or perish" attitude, which suggests that our first priority should be to get as much material into scholarly journals as we can, regardless of the cost to ourselves or our relationships. It gets very competitive, and it doesn't necessarily have to be. I'm learning from colleagues every day that we are better together 90 percent of the time, and that when everyone cares more about goals than themselves, really great things come of it. Part of bringing a Christian ethic to my work is to remember that every one's needs are as important as mine, and in the end it's not about beating others to the punch, but rather making sure we all get where we need to go with our dignity intact.
The other major issue in my professional life is that of my research. I've long seen my faith as having no place in my research, and for many people that may be the case. However, the whole reason I became interested in sociology (my field) was because I was deeply affected my social injustices I was exposed to as a youth director and in the mission field. I had the desire but not the gifts to be a "foot-soldier" against injustices, but I am gifted with some talent and passion for intellectual pursuits. As I've made my way through graduate school, I've gotten more honed at using my intellect for research purposes, but have done a great job of bringing my new skills to a place where it can meet my faith. When my adviser took a position at another school this summer, I was confronted with the fact that I might have to rethink my dissertation research. This was, of course, absolutely terrifying, but as I told one professor last week, that fear has started to feel a lot like opportunity.
One thing I'm considering doing for my dissertation research (in addition to some of the research I've already done) is studying the lives of southern ministers and how their position in the church impacts their personal well-being. I think this has the potential to be a great study, both in terms of scholarship and in terms of shedding a light on the issues that church leaders have to deal with as they try to make a difference in the world. One thing I know lots of people have experienced (myself included) is a tension between what we believe to be our purpose and the expectations of the people we serve. It's something that keeps people awake at night. The reasons people go into the ministry and the message they feel convicted to deliver is not always well received, and sometimes downright incompatible with what congregations want to hear. I'm curious as to what happens to ministers who alter their discourse to avoid conflict compared to those who are too convicted or just too stubborn to compromise. I can see how both situations would cause a great deal of mental distress (not just for ministers, but also their families), and I think a sociological analysis of the roles, expectations, and mental health of clergy (especially mainline clergy, who are part of a larger hierarchy), would be both interesting and give a humanistic perspective of individuals who are often cast in a larger than life image that is incredibly difficult to live up to. I have no idea what my findings would actually be, but I think this study idea could contribute to a great dialogue about the ways spiritual leaders interact with their communities.
Anyways, this is a very length introduction to the kinds of things going on in my head these days, and I hope to explore all of the above in greater detail over the next few months. Just wanted to get it all down and out there so I can get some feedback and keep myself motivated.
Peace
Phil
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Reflections on Nationalism and Faith
I have a difficult view of my nation, because on the one hand I appreciate the sacrifice of my countrymen in the interests of protecting me, but on the other hand, I just don't feel right treating the USA as if it is in competition with the other nations of the world to be "better" or "more right." It just doesn't feel healthy to me. I have met, worked with, and studied with a substantial number of international folks, most of whom loved their homelands and did not feel any more or less free in this country. Yes, some had a very difficult past in their own country, but just as many had experienced oppression or violence at the hands of the US in their homeland, which is a sobering reality to deal with. My own view is not that the US is exceptionally good or exceptionally bad, but that it is simply a country, like many that came before it and will come after it. There are fantastic things about it (the people, the land, the music) and there are not so good things about it (pollution, fast food, Rush Limbaugh), but all in all it is a place and it is my home. I deeply love where I live, and the friends and family I have here, but I also deeply love the people who live other places, and struggle with the idea that my home is often in conflict with their home.
I do not struggle as much with my spiritual identity. I love the idea and the principles of Christ. I love the Way, and I want to follow it because I believe deeply that it is good and right. So when I engage in worship or meditation, it is oriented towards that which is perfect, that is to say, God (or whatever name you wish to give "it"). Celebrating a national identity is fine, even healthy for reminding us that we have to live together in this place, but there is danger in the "worship" of a nation. It creates the expectation and belief that a country can be more than it is, that the American way is a sacred path. It is not, at least not for me, because the standards for what is sacred are too high for a country to meet. I never wish that I could just be more American. I do wish, almost constantly, that I could be more like Christ, that I could adopt the attitudes and behavior that He espouses and demonstrated. Worship, when I succeed at it, is really an extended meditation on the Way that brings me closer, if only for a moment, to God. I think this is a sacred time and experience.
When I attend a worship service where this is not the clear, intended goal, I have difficulty engaging with God, and I often fail to adopt a worshipful attitude in these settings. Perhaps this is my problem, as it is not the job of others to cater to me. However, I feel nothing but discomfort when a nationalistic focus is brought into the church. It feels like idol worship, and it is only worse when I perceive, real or not, greater vigor for one's country than one's faith (I admit here that this is simply a gut feeling and is horrifically presumptuous). It's the same feeling I get when I realize I am more passionate about a football game than my spiritual growth.
Maybe this is not a problem for others, and I do not wish to prevent anyone from practicing their faith in whatever way they wish. Perhaps the correct response is for me to simply not participate in events that create a stumbling block for me (it's strange to throw a type of Sunday Service into the same category as a late night bar hop, but I'm just thinking aloud here). In any case, my intention towards others is simply to encourage a close self-examination of the relationship between faith and country. I think a bit of thought towards how we as individuals are being intentional is healthy and important in this matter, especially with regards to how our words and actions reflect our own identities, beliefs, and priorities. I say this as an imperfect person, striving to grow but still not there yet.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Clarity On a Dark Highway in the Early Hours of the Day
Monday, April 25, 2011
Lent Review
So what did I learn during my Lenten experiment? I could point towards a number of things, but the main thing that has sunk in is that I never realized how useless guilt is until the last few weeks. Whenever I fell short on one of my commitments, I felt guilty about it. When I spent too much, I felt guilty. When I ran less than I could, I felt guilty. How did I respond to the feeling of guilt? Did I change my behavior and use that feeling to improve myself? No. I tried to find a way to feel better, whether it was by indulging myself in a different way, or by beating myself to try and serve 'penance' for my trespasses against my commitments. Guilt proved to motivate only a desire to feel less guilty, not to do things differently or grow in a real, tangible way.
I recently read a blog where the author suggested that the words "ought to" are the most self-defeating two words in the English language, and suggested that "want to" were a far superior alternative. I tend to agree. If I ought to take better care of myself, or spend less, or anything really, I'm much less likely to actually make any progress than I am if I want to get that high that comes after a good run, or want to have money to spend on something I really want.
The heart wants what the heart wants, after all. If we try to trick ourselves by saying that we shouldn't be this way or that way, and that we "need" to do differently, things are unlikely to change. Trying to be someone you are not will only make you feel frustrated, inferior, and depressed, as I know quite well from the episodes of depression I have experienced in my life. Fighting who you are will not get you anywhere at all.
Does that mean that we should just do whatever we want, and damn the consequences? I don't think it does. I may be optimistic, but I think that, at least for most people, the heart wants to love and be loved above all else. How we go about that is up for debate, but I think most folks I know would agree that sharing in loving, healthy relationship with others is something that we deeply desire. So forgive the cliche, but it seems that it would be hard to go wrong when you follow your heart. Not instincts, not fleeting desires, but what you know, in the deepest part of yourself to be true, good, and lovely.
It's hard to live with guilt. It is easy, however, to make yourself feel guilty by creating false images of yourself that are unattainable. Part of trusting God, I think, is believing that you are here on purpose, that your core desires, your innermost hopes and identity, are good. Trying to be someone else will only make you miserable, but maybe, just maybe, the God who has created and is creating made us to be who we are to the fullest; to be unique, yet intertwined by the grace and love in which all our hopes our bound.
And so here is my prayer to close out Lent and start the next chapter in my life:
Living God, who has created, is creating, and will create,
Remind us that we are made in Your image,
That we may always walk in Your Grace,
Hope, and Love.
Help us see ourselves with Your eyes and not our own,
That we may come to live as Your children,
To love ourselves and one another as
You have loved us.
Surround us in Your presence,
And protect us from ourselves,
As we learn to trust in You.
Show us the way,
Amen.
Friday, April 22, 2011
40-43: Last Days
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Days 38-39: The Last Weekend
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Days 35-37: Boring End, Boring Week
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Days 33-34: Cruise Control
Monday, April 11, 2011
Days 31-32: My KneeI
Friday, April 8, 2011
Days 29-30: The Day I Went Shopping
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Day 27-28: Just an update
Monday, April 4, 2011
Day 26 - Cynicism is Bullsh!t
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Days 24-25 - A Weekend, a Thought
Friday, April 1, 2011
Day 22-23 - Short update
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Day 21–Jimmy Johns and Cancer
I had two interesting occurrences today. I had dinner at Jimmy Johns with a friend ($7.20 for those keeping up). I always love hanging out with this friend because she keeps me honest. I doubt she really understands how valuable her friendship is to me, but I always deeply value our conversations and time together. When I left last night, I felt reinvigorated to continue with this quest to become the kind of man I believe I have been called to be. My unnamed friend tends to do that without even knowing it, so thank you.
Second, I found out about a fellowship in epidemiology dealing with social behaviors and life and cancer. I had never thought about doing cancer research before, but given the way the disease has impacted my life, my interest was piqued. Then I heard I might be able to do research in the Black Belt if I got the fellowship. My interest was further piqued. I’m meditating on this idea, because even though it has nothing to do with what I was thinking of doing for my dissertation, it might be more important. The question I’m struggling with is whether it is more important for me to make a significant contribution to sociology, or use sociology to do research that might have a shot a helping people. I’m leaning towards the latter, but I’m going to be patient with my decisions and see what actually happens.
